+ Inflation, rates & jobs since 2019
- Inflation (CPI, year over year)
- Core inflation (ex food & energy)
- Fed funds rate
- Unemployment rate
- Phase (our interpretation)
The Consumer: an economic state of the union.
What American households face right now (prices, rates, jobs, pay, credit and mood), told only with public government data. Every number and headline on this page is computed from the source series. None is typed by hand.
+ Key numbers
+ Paychecks vs prices
- Average hourly pay, year over year
- Prices (CPI), year over year
- ▲ Real pay rising
- ▼ Real pay falling
Show the data
+ The squeeze
Show the data
+ Credit stress
- Card delinquency rate, all banks
- 2019 average
- Recession
Show the data
+ Mood
- Consumer sentiment index (1966 = 100)
- Recession
Show the data
+ Household budget
Show the data
+ Method
Every number on this page comes from a public government series.
A scheduled job downloads each series from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) and the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey. A build step then computes every figure and headline, and the site redeploys. No API keys and no private data.
- Hero phase labels (e.g. "Energy shock") are our interpretation of the data, dated from Fed rate moves and inflation turning points. They are not official designations.
- BLS did not publish October 2025 CPI or unemployment figures. Lines bridge that gap.
- The revolving credit series shows a sharp one-month drop in December 2024. The chart flags it rather than smoothing it away.
- Household spending (Consumer Expenditure Survey) is annual and lags by about nine months.
- Recession shading uses the NBER-based indicator (USREC).